Migration and Development

The Harvard Mellon Urban Initiative 2025 Urban Research Grant extended funding for a master’s student research assistant with experience in geospatial analysis to assist my dissertation research on migration and development. My research project investigates how migrant exposure to economic shocks impacts economic development in migrant origin countries, including on housing, with a focus on Ecuadorian migrants to Spain who were impacted by Spanish labor shocks related to the Global Financial Crisis. We increased the geographic precision of our study, delving beneath the province level to examine cantons and parishes in Ecuador (for the US, this would resemble moving from studying states to counties and municipalities). This entailed deeper analysis of online datasets analyzed under a previous Urban Research Grant, namely the Global Human Settlement Layer (high-resolution estimates of built-up area, population, and urbanism based on satellite imagery), and analysis of additional online datasets for the project, including official census tabulations and census and survey microdata. 

The project examines how migration to Spain impacted Ecuador after Spanish labor markets experienced a dramatic decline, particularly in construction, a common industry for migrants. I find that Ecuadorian cantons more exposed through migration to construction employment downturns in Spain appear to have experienced larger increases in return migration from Spain, and may have materially improved relative to other cantons. The research assistant produced compelling visualizations of the spatial distribution of migration in both Ecuador and Spain, and of employment shocks in Spain. I include maps produced through the support of HMUI in my working paper, as well as in academic presentations of the project, including a recent conference presentation at Yonsei University in South Korea this spring. The research assistant has also contributed code to the project, not only for maps, but also to standardize Ecuadorian census open microdata from 2001 to 2022, which should facilitate ongoing analysis of migration, housing, and construction in Ecuador. 

Building on the support of the Urban Research Grant, I aim to continue my research project as I write my dissertation, investigating the developmental impacts of Spanish recession-induced return migration on Ecuador, including on Ecuadorian urbanization.

Joseph M. 1
Joseph M. 2

 

Bibliography

European Commission, Eurostat (ESTAT), GISCO. 2024. “Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) 2021 - Statistical Units - Data Set.” https://gisco-services.ec.europa.eu/distribution/v2/nuts/download/.

GADM. 2015. “GADM Database.” Version 2.8. Accessed January 16, 2024. https://gadm.org/old_versions.html.

GADM. 2015. “GADM Database.” Version 2.8. Humanitarian Data Exchange. Accessed July 25, 2025. https://data.humdata.org/dataset/social-connectedness-index#.

Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), Spain. 2004. “Censos de Población y Viviendas 2001. Resultados Definitivos. Population by Country of Birth and Province of Residence.” INEbase. Excel. INEbase. https://ine.es/censo/en/inicio.jsp.

Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE), Spain. n.d. “Economically Active Population Survey Results 2005-2019.” Microdata. INEbase. Accessed August 7, 2024. https://ine.es/dyngs/INEbase/en/operacion.htm?c=Estadistica_C&cid=1254736176918&menu=resultados&idp=1254735976595#_tabs-1254736030639.

Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, Ecuador. 2001. “GEOESTADÍSTICA DIVISION POLITICO ADMINISTRATIVA.” https://www.ecuadorencifras.gob.ec/documentos/web-inec/Geografia_Estadistica/Micrositio_geoportal/index.html.

Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INEC), Ecuador. 2003. “País de Destino (Cantón) Ecuador:Censo de Población y Vivienda 2001.” REDATAM. http://redatam.inec.gob.ec/cgibin/RpWebEngine.exe/PortalAction.

Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INEC), Ecuador. 2003. “Población (Cantón) Ecuador:Censo de Población y Vivienda 2001.” REDATAM. http://redatam.inec.gob.ec/cgibin/RpWebEngine.exe/PortalAction.

Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, Ecuador. n.d. “VI Censo de Población y V de Vivienda 2001 Sector con corresp 2022.” SPSS. Accessed April 8, 2026. https://www.censoecuador.gob.ec/data-censo-ecuador/#bdanios.

Melkonian, Joseph. 2026. “Shock Propagation through Migrant Networks: Evidence from Subnational Migration in the Spain-Ecuador Migration Corridor.” Paper presentation at 19th ADB-BOK-IDB-Yale YRISE-Yonsei IPHC International Conference on Migration and Development, Seoul, South Korea, April 16. https://drive.google.com/file/d/18-Q6RBNvKmeCf_03g1Luc1-F8mIIyn0O/view

Pesaresi, Martino, and Panagiotis Politis. 2023. “GHS-BUILT-S R2023A - GHS Built-up Surface Grid, Derived from Sentinel2 Composite and Landsat, Multitemporal (1975-2030).” European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), April 25. https://doi.org/10.2905/9F06F36F-4B11-47EC-ABB0-4F8B7B1D72EA.

Schiavina, Marcello, Sergio Freire, and Kytt MacManus. 2023. “GHS-POP R2023A - GHS Population Grid Multitemporal (1975-2030).” European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC). https://doi.org/10.2905/2FF68A52-5B5B-4A22-8F40-C41DA8332CFE.[JM1] 

Schiavina, Marcello, Michele Melchiorri, and Martino Pesaresi. 2023. “GHS-SMOD R2023A - GHS Settlement Layers, Application of the Degree of Urbanisation Methodology (Stage I) to GHS-POP R2023A and GHS-BUILT-S R2023A, Multitemporal (1975-2030).” European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), April 25. https://doi.org/10.2905/A0DF7A6F-49DE-46EA-9BDE-563437A6E2BA.

 [JM1]Need to add the other layers I used (urban categorization, built area layers)

 

Grant Recipient: Joseph Melkonian